Gerard Offermans, Reelektronika; Moderator:

In the US: Research to date has yielded the U.S. technical and cost reports which have generated positive commentsfrom the US government.

In Europe: France will continue Loran-C support; The UK is setting up a test transmitter for 2 years; NELS legacy is unclear.

In the Far East: Awaiting decision in US; The number of participants for the Forum at this meeting showed large interest. 

Question: How do we now get from research to practice?
 

Langhorne Bond, former US FAA Administrator:

"Future-ology" – taking bets – Here’s what will happen now that the US reports are out. Today, the basic worldwide aviation enroute system uses VOR/DME transmitters. We use 1,100 of these to cover the US, down to some distance (thousands of feet design altitude) above the ground. Don’t invest in VOR/DME; they are dead. E-Loran will replace them. Then, Loran will spread through the world, as ICAO adopts it. It will save a great deal of money for the US, by the way!

Loran will replace the satellites used for WAAS, because we can carry the WAAS corrections. 2,000 NDBs in US, and others elsewhere in the world, will disappear. Finally, a kind of "precision approach" – the straight-in stabilized approach -- will be achieved using e-Loran's by using lateral accuracy combined with barometric altimeters and likely a future Inertial Reference System (IRS). I'm taking no bets on height minima. People like the team at Ohio University will make this happen.

Other than that, I see no impact of Loran!
 

Linn Roth, Locus, Inc.:

It’s political as well as technical. We have a pretty good understanding of what the eLoran system can do now. Lots of research and researchers tell us. Given the political and economic atmosphere, it’s a remarkable accomplishment. Kudos. This has been done at fairly low cost to the government. IN the non-navigational areas, look at two-way time transfer involving e-Loran, for example. It's all good; we are just beginning to open up applications and opportunities.

The situation is still conditional. Note Megapulse's Erik Johannessen and his presentation on market advice. The US policy announcement is badly needed to stabilize the market.
 

David Last, University of Wales: (See the link to his complete opening statement, above)

This is indeed a turning point. The DOT decision in the US will either kill a remarkably resilient system or keep it alive. Loran can serve as backup to GNSS, if stations are modified and new generation of receivers is developed. We have demonstrated both, but apparently the results are not yet compelling enough.

e-Loran is a proof of concept today. No receivers are ready for market. They could be produced inexpensively, but we are barely started on creating that demand. Are users seeking a GPS backup? Many have never heard of Loran-C. Only in the US are conditions really favorable. In the rest of the world, the system is dying. There are just six Europeans at this conference. There is not a single representative of an operating organization or a user. Helios, and France's Jacques Manchard, are rays of hope. Many navigation professionans and some politicians are on board, but there are still challenges in Europe. It is a mighty task to convince them to support the system.

In the Far East, there are no modern receivers, a decreasing number of users -- it's legacy Loran-C. Korea, Russia and China will have to pay to modernizee; their users and administrations need to be convinced.

Engineers have worked wonders; but the process of moving to reality will be long and it has barely begun.
 

Mr. Teruhisa Fujino, Director Koden Electronics Japan; in charge of overseas business

The Koden company is quite excited to be chosen to work with the FAA eLoran project. We don’t know much about the politics, but it is true that no existing Loran users now. With e-Loran there is added value. Koden is developing an eLoran receiver as soon as possible for mass production. It will be affordable to general users, and available in the near future.
 

Mr. Shigeo Kawashima, General Manager, Radio Applications Research Development Group, Japan Radio Company

We are making GPS receivers -- 1.5 million receivers last year. Tens of thousands of these are for marine use. We made no receivers for Loran last year. Our main Loran-C users are marine – new users are almost unknown in Japan. The new ideas on Loran-C accuracy and integrity are attractive.
 

Question and Answer Period:

Q: C. Cutright -- Mr. Bond made the statement that e-Loran will become a new enroute standard in the US. Is that a standalone system?
A: L. Bond -- No. The assumption is that the user has eLoran integrated with GNSS.

Q: With that enroute combined box, will instrument approaches be available everywhere? 
A: Yes.

Q: Note the solar effects in the north and a proposal that the WAAS message be sent over Loran-C. You could lose it all.
A: The key is, that I never implied that ILS would disasppear. It will remain. Note the Europeans are buying and installing the Microwave Landing System (MLS). Why this resurgence of interest? 1) Frequency congestion. 2) Increasing multipath problems as buildings go up. Cat II and III approaches threatened, but it’s basically about capacity. There is a lot of Cat II/III weather in Europe – there's more fog. Capacity is also helped by MLS non-image signals. ILS/MLS will be around for a long time. The utility of e-Loran will be to provide services where there is no ILS/MLS.

Comment: Paul Schick: I don’t think I’ve seen losses during solar flares in the data channel.
L. Bond: The October 2003 storm knocked out WAAS for precision approach. We have not seen studies on intference with Loran.  Ben Peterson and a group are looking at it for Mitch Narins at the US FAA. This solar storm was huge; it affected both systems at the same time. GPS still provided RNP 0.3 laterally, so Loran-C was not needed.

Q: T. Celano: Is e-Loran work actually generating some movement in Europe, and if not why not?
A: D. Last: There is no doubt that a positive US decision would attract considerable attention to Loran. The situation is dire, however, the Rugby tests and other items notwithstanding. We need an early and clearly positive US decision. This is crucial -- delay is now very negative in Europe.

Q: T. Celano: What would Koden’s strategy for new products? Would you include Loran-C if there’s a positive US decision? A: T. Fujino: Yes.

Q: Sherman Lo: With a positive decision, what kind of market do we see, and how large for e-Loran products? THis is certainly the next issue after a decision is made. The question is to Linn Roth in the American and other markets, and David Last.

L. Roth: Speaking as a manufacturer – many companies are interested in providing integrated systems for marine, aviation and timing applications. The Loran markets are not as large as GPS, but they are substantial. Loran offers advantages in the timing field and elsewhere, as we have discussed here. If you go to Institute of Navigation (ION) meetings, the talk is on the very subtle aspects of the systems, not new mainstream products. We need the US DOT decision to help stabilize the market, but there are those ready now to “pull the trigger”.

D. Last: I’m not a marketing man, but I am a Euopean aircraft owner. My role is to tell people what Loran is. Almost no one has ever heard of it, and no one knows the vulnerabilities of GPS. The point I have made is that you have to start on that process before you create a demand.

L. Bond: History is the shadow of individuals. Performance shows the FAA administrator and the US Coast Guard Commandant to be narrow-minded bureaucrats. Homeland Security is really the decision point – our security and that of our allies are in their hands. They are trying to learn, but coming to the correct decision will take time.

Our job is still to begin to talk about the risk issues. We now know how Loran will work with GPS. The US 9/11 Commission said in its report that “We suffered from a lack of imagination.”  That problem is everywhere in government, and we can’t let it persist.

Gerard Offermans:What are some marketing comments from the audience?

E. Johannessen: Assuming we get a US decision; what do the Far East panel members think? What are the prospects and where do they exist?

T. Fujino:  To my knowledge, everything depends upon the US decision. The biggest market for this equipment is for security, and then can be extended to a more diverse market for general customers.

S. Kawashima: There are no receivers now; previously we built Loran receivers, but now WAAS receivers are being exported to the US. Receiver cost will go down once quantities are produced. We (Japan Radio) are not yet developing a Loran receiver.

J. Macaluso: Except for France, China and Saudi, the world is awaiting the US decision. Why wait? 

D. Last: It is partly due to the special nature of Loran being prerceived as an American product. But it is really due to the special nature of GPS. Rest of world sees it as controlled by the US, and this is a great weakness as seen form the outside. The US attempted to make GPS the sole means for the whole world, and has now backed off and seen the vulnerability problems. Great admiration has been expressed for the Volpe Center's report on GPS vulnerability. It is very pery powerful to see self criticism. In Europe, this word has now reached navigation professionals, but not governments. They already decided on Galileo, and they don’t want to know about vulnerabilities of satellite-only systems. That wave of understanding/realization , if it includes the Loran-C answer, can be profound.

Gerard Offermans: Is there awareness of GPS vulnerability studies in Japan? What about mitigation? 

T. Fujino: We at Koden do know GPS is not perfect. They are aware.

S. Kawashima: For synchronization, we can use GPS.

Q: J. Macaluso: Do you see reluctance to switch to a “new” concept?
A: Bond: No, but there is a push to modernize obsolete and expensive systems when Loran can serve for a lot less money. The US air travel system hides the costs to the users in passenger fees, etc.  We can change opinions, but we need the decision. The military side in the US is a lot more stable than FAA.

L. Roth: Note the developments by Rockwell and Free-Flight Systems. Both are interested in marketing an integrated GPS/eLoran product to general aviation up through corporate jets. The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association is supportive; AOPA knows that legacy aids are expensive and they don’t want user fees.

Gerard Offermans: Why did WAAS fail in the non-general-aviation market?

L. Bond: You have to refer to WAAS history in the US. GPS was marketed as "perfect". "Every ground navaid will be turned off, including radar". It has been truly bizarre. WAAS was conceived to replace ILS Cat 1. It is now realized that WAAS only serves runways which don’t have an ILS. WAAS has higher descent minima than ILS. The US operates 1,100 ILSs at 700+ airports. Airlines receive no benefits from GPSWAAS. WAAS may work, but it’s limited to small airplanes/small airports.  There are many other WAAS applications, but that’s the case in aviation.

Q: Sherman Lo: The need for education has been noted frequently here -- increased awareness -- insurance for rare event -- difficult markets. Who do we need to educate? 
E. Last – Broad-sense educ at all levels all the time. My theme in my opeining statement.
F. ILA has been the leader in changing people’s thinking. We are the key opinion formers over the past years in US and Europe. Our supporters are a strange group but they are winning through. We’ve convinced the professionals. Believe a backup is necessary. Staggering – in Europe. Need the consumers, through the press, magazines, etc. Big task.

L. Roth: When I became ILA President, I specifically targeted the US Congress because of frustration in dealing with other US government officials. Because of the way the US system works, Congress appropriates the money that is spent. During the talk of turning Loran off in the year 2000, Congress increased the money to modernize substantially. SO, we’ve been somewhat successful – but when will we see a decision for continuation?

L. Bond: Two things can happen. We could get a decision pretty soon -- say in three months? If the Democrats win the US elections it will certainly be delayed. The other option is that we could continue in a delay mode. Loran will not be killed in the US. The Coast Guard requests money to continue it, and Congress keeps appropriating money The system modernization program continues.

Q: C. Cutright: What about a mandate for a backupsystem? 
A: L. Bond: There is no radio backup other than Loran. The marine people have a very easy decision. Aviation, however, has  extensive (and expensive) legacy systems, so it’s a harder decision. Loran as opposed to sole means GPS is not such a compelling safety argument in aviation. So we talk about cost when we deal with aviation.

Comment: R. Lilley: Note that it is 2004, four years after the original US shutdown deadline. Loran is still on the air and we did it!